How it works

Prediction methodology

Core rule: picks are published before the fight and are not deleted after a loss.

What the confidence score means

A confidence score is an estimate of how strongly the matchup favors the selected fighter. It is not a guaranteed probability, betting recommendation, or promise of profit.

What goes into a pick

Analysis can consider striking style, pace, defensive wrestling, grappling control, cardio, finishing threats, durability, recent form, experience and matchup-specific tendencies. The goal is to explain the matchup in plain language instead of relying on a single statistic.

How results are counted

A winner pick is graded as a win when the selected fighter officially wins and as a loss when the selected fighter officially loses. No contest and overturned results should be separated from normal wins and losses.

Independence

FightLedger is an independent analysis site. It is not affiliated with or endorsed by UFC, Zuffa, any fighter, athletic commission, sportsbook or fight promotion.

Responsible-use note

This site is for sports analysis and entertainment. Nothing on the site is financial or gambling advice. If you choose to wager anywhere, you are responsible for following local laws and making your own decisions.